PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal may see its daily vessel count reduced to around 29 during February or March 2027 if drought conditions persist, according to its new administrator. Ilya Espino de Marotta, who assumed her role on Sept. 7, highlighted the risk as El Niño continues to impact reservoir water levels. The canal depends on freshwater from lakes fed by rainfall to operate its locks. In response to below-average precipitation across the watershed, the Panama Canal Authority has already begun implementing phased capacity reductions.
Since Sept. 3, the canal has provided nine daily Neopanamax slots and 25 Panamax slots, totaling 34 capacity. From Sept. 15 onward, Panamax availability will decrease to 23 slots, reducing the total to 32 daily transits. These adjustments come amid weaker-than-usual rainfall during Panama’s wet season and reduced inflows into the canal’s watershed. To conserve water and manage demand, officials are employing water-saving strategies, tightening booking controls, and closely monitoring Gatun Lake and other water sources.
Official operational data shows that during fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 daily transits up to June 30. From October through June, it recorded 10,726 transits, representing a 5.2% increase compared to the same period the previous year. These figures predate the recent decline in rainfall, which has prompted stricter operational limits. The canal connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and is crucial for international trade, facilitating shipments of containers, energy products, bulk commodities, and various other cargo.
Water shortages lead to reduced transit capacity
Locks along the canal depend on freshwater from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to lift and lower ships during transit. Therefore, water levels in these reservoirs directly influence how many vessels can pass during extended dry spells. During the severe drought in 2023, daily transits dropped to 22 in December when Gatun Lake levels became critically low. Capacity later increased as rainfall improved and conservation measures helped maintain water supplies for canal operations and local consumption.
The canal has also made adjustments to vessel draft limits as part of its water management efforts. On Sept. 4, officials delayed a scheduled reduction in the Neopanamax maximum draft from 48 to 47.5 feet. The current 48-foot limit remains in effect after assessments of Gatun Lake’s water levels and revised weather forecasts. Draft limits are crucial because they restrict how deeply vessels can be loaded, impacting ships carrying heavier cargoes.
Changes to booking procedures as capacity decreases
In addition, the canal revised its booking and auction policies to adapt to the diminished capacity. Auction slots are now categorized by cargo type, including gas carriers, bulk ships, container vessels, and tankers. When other conditions are equal, full container ships with the greatest carrying capacity are prioritized for Neopanamax slots. Authorities advise vessels without reservations to utilize the booking system, as limited capacity may lead to longer wait times. Securing a confirmed reservation remains the only way to guarantee a transit date.
No further plans have been announced to cut capacity to 29 ships per day. The administrator has indicated that such a restriction could be considered for February or March if dry conditions do not improve. The Panama Canal Authority continues monitoring rainfall, watershed inflows, and lake levels to determine if additional operational adjustments are necessary. Additionally, the canal is progressing with the Río Indio reservoir project, intended to expand long-term water storage capacity. This initiative is part of Panama’s broader strategy to ensure water security for the canal and more than half of the country’s population.